June 25, 2026: In each of the last five years China has built three or four submarines a year. During this period China built ten nuclear subs, with an average displacement of 7,800 tons while America built seven nuclear subs of similar size.

Currently China has 70 submarines, twelve of them nuclear powered and the rest diesel electric, although most also have AIP/Air Independent Propulsion. America’s 65 submarines are all nuclear powered and fourteen are SSBNs that carry ballistic missiles. China has only six SSBNs.

Desperate to gain an edge in submarine warfare, China has been building submarines with unique features, like no sail, which is the square superstructure on top of the hull which most submarines have had for over a century.

The Chinese navy has been rapidly growing since the 1980s and currently has more ships than the American navy. China has not yet caught up in total tonnage because American warships tend to be heavier. The eleven American nuclear aircraft carriers are something China may never match. China is also way behind when it comes to experience. China admits that it will take decades to match and then surpass the American fleet. China often mentions 2050 as the year Chinese naval power surpasses the United States. Meanwhile China is encountering a lot of expected, and some unexpected problems.

For example, Chinese leader Xi Jinping was shocked and surprised by the growing number of problems in his military. Xi has openly complained about corruption, poor work habits and lack of discipline. Xi ordered a purge of military personnel purportedly responsible for these problems and demanded that officials in charge of military combat and support operations make the changes, or else. Efforts to identify and eliminate corrupt practices and officials responsible for them have not been successful.

Over the last decade there have been multiple purges of corrupt officials, with over a dozen generals, nearly as many admirals and a growing number of senior aerospace and shipbuilding industry officials. This included officers and officials in charge of the rocket forces that maintain short and long range missiles. Many of these missiles were found to be, on closer inspection, inoperable. In late 2023 a former defense minister was removed from the national legislature because of corruption charges.

Xi has found that there are few officials he can trust to be free of corruption and accusations of incompetence. The dismissed senior officers obtained their positions by pretending to get things done but failing to do so in the belief that there would not be a war or threat of war to expose their misdeeds. The amounts stolen, most recently with China’s strategic oil reserves, have been so enormous as to indicate corruption even among the personnel charged with seeking it out, including the secret police. Worst of all, many of those involved with the oil reserve thefts got the proceeds of their thefts, themselves and their families out of China before the theft was fortuitously discovered when the oil reserves were needed to make up for decreased imports due to the 2026 Iran war.

This is a serious matter because the government has spent hundreds of billion dollars to build the largest fleet in the world. This process began in 2012, and Xi expected the Chinese fleet to be the world’s largest modern force by 2050. This actually happened in 2025, when the American government and navy leadership were finally convinced that Chinese naval power was a serious threat in the Pacific, and now the Chinese are seeking to become the dominant naval power in the Persian Gulf and waters between there and China.

The Chinese navy still has some serious problems. Corrupt shipyard officials and a navy commanded by corrupt admirals threatens to create an expensive and useless force. On paper the Chinese seem headed for success. Currently the Chinese navy has three aircraft carriers, four amphibious ships/helicopter carriers, 75 submarines and 300 other warships. The total number of ships is 743, including a large number of support ships so the navy can operate far into the Pacific or Indian Oceans. China has never had a high seas fleet like this before. This large naval fleet was made possible by China becoming the world's largest builder of commercial ships. Currently about half the world's supply of new cargo, tanker and specialized ships are built in Chinese shipyards. China has become the world’s largest importer of raw materials and exporter of manufactured goods, all of which is moved by ships through seas easily blockaded by ships and aircraft of the United States and Japan. China’s growing fleet is intended to deal with that if necessary.

Another problem with China’s naval expansion is obtaining the well-trained manpower to operate it. This is much truer of China’s navy than its other military services because China lacks a naval or even maritime seagoing tradition of the sort that America, Japan, Britain and a few other European nations have. Effective navies must drill at sea constantly, but that requires their ship crews to spend months at a time at sea away from their families. China has discovered a major problem recruiting the necessary well-educated young men willing to do this. The on-going collapse of China’s population size makes this recruitment problem even worse as the yearly pool of males coming of military age plummets.